Tropical Cyclone Joyce [09U] formed Thursday 12 January 2018 off the west Kimberley coast. Movement overnight was in a general southerly direction, and as a result Joyce moved towards the coast near Bidyadanga.
A more west southwesterly track today has seen Joyce move parallel to the coast, just offshore from Eighty Mile Beach. Recent radar imagery appears to show Joyce dipping a little further south, and a coastal crossing between Pardoo and Wallal Downs is likely in the next few hours. Dvorak analysis remains difficult. Convection continues to blow up over the centre but no large scale, long lived curved banding has been evident which makes applying a Dvorak pattern difficult. In vis imagery the CDO is too small to apply that pattern. FT and CI are based on MET of 3.0. ADT is no longer available with the system being classified as over land. Surface observations as Joyce based by Mandora indicate that the system has a low central pressure of around 982hPa. However, gales were not observed from this site, and offshore observations indicate a large area of 25/30 knots winds. An area of gales is still likely over water near the centre based on an area of tight curvature on radar just offshore. Intensity is set to 35 knots [10 minute mean].
The centre remains asymetric on radar, with most convection to the west and south of the centre. There is moderate confidence in the analysed position. The system is expected to cross the coast in the next few hours before moving inland and weakening during Friday afternoon and evening. Significant rainfall is likely across WA as the system tracks across the Pilbara, Gascoyne and towards the southwest of the state. Flood watches and warnings are current.
From www.bom.gov.au 19:00 12 Jan 2018
Perth Now: Joyce fails to intensify off WA coast
The Australian: Tropical Cyclone Joyce: Police warn against cyclone parties
ABC: Cyclone Joyce to cross WA's Kimberley coast as a category one as risk of drenching rain for Perth