Tropical Cyclone Uesi



Satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Uesi, 12/02/2020, image from JTWC
Satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Uesi, 12/02/2020, image from JTWC

Computer models are forecasting that Tropical Cyclone Uesi will come close to the East Australia late this week. Uesi has developed in South-West Pacific Ocean North of Noumea and is currently at a category 3 level. The cyclone will travel from Noumea towards the East coast of Australia over several days. Uesi is forecast to travel South-west along the coast and bring large swells to the Queensland and NSW coasts.

 

Details of TC Uesi (from JTWC)

12100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 162.6E.

11FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 

NM WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS 

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 

SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED A DEEP CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT 

OBSCURED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. POLEWARD ELONGATION DUE TO SHEAR 

IS BECOMING APPARENT; HOWEVER, INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALSO 

ENHANCED THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH 

HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 111806Z GPM 

37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT 

OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE TC WILL NOW TRACK MORE 

SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE 

EAST BUILDS. AROUND TAU 48, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM 

THE SOUTHWEST WILL DIG INTO AND WEAKEN THE STR RESULTING IN A MORE 

SOUTHWARD TRACK. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE (20KTS+). 

THIS, PLUS THE APPROACH OF COOL DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED 

WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. 

CONCURRENTLY, NEAR TAU 48, TC UESI WILL UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL 

TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD 500MB LOW EAST OF 

AUSTRALIA AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING BAROCLINICITY AND COOLING SST 

VALUES (24-26C). THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY 

TAU 72, CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERIC MODELS ARE 

IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST 

TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 25 FEET. 

Track map of a Tropical Cyclone Uesi near Noumea, 12/02/2020. From Fiji Met Service
Track map of a Tropical Cyclone Uesi near Noumea, 12/02/2020. From Fiji Met Service
Track map of Tropical Cyclone Uesi in the Coral Sea, 12/02/2020. from JTWC.
Track map of Tropical Cyclone Uesi in the Coral Sea, 12/02/2020. from JTWC.
Colourised satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Uesi, 12/02/2020. Images from NOAA
Colourised satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Uesi, 12/02/2020. Images from NOAA
Tropical Cyclone Uesi in the South-West Pacific Ocean, 12/02/2020. Images from JMA
Tropical Cyclone Uesi in the South-West Pacific Ocean, 12/02/2020. Images from JMA