Tropical Cyclone Owen



Tropical Cyclone Owen reformed and to develop into a Severe Tropical Cyclone

Track map of Ex- Tropical Cyclone Owen in the Gulf of Carpetaria 13 December 2018 From JTWC
Track map of Ex- Tropical Cyclone Owen in the Gulf of Carpetaria 13 December 2018 From JTWC

13 December 2018

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has developed into a category severe Tropical Cyclone in the Gulf of Carpentaria STC Owen will develop further to a cat 4 cyclone, then forecast to cross back over Cape Yorke. 

 

12 December 2018

Tropical Cyclone Owen has developed into a category 2 cyclone in the Gulf of Carpentaria TC Owen will develop further to a cat 3 cyclone, then forecast to turn towards the East coast of the gulf and cross back over Cape Yorke. 

11 December 2018

 The remnants of ex-tropical cyclone Owen have entered the Gulf of Carpentaria and developing potential to reform into a Tropical Cyclone over night.

 

10 December 2018

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Owen is moving westwards across the Cape York Peninsula and is expected to enter the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria in the early hours of Tuesday morning. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Owen is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria. During Wednesday or Thursday, the tropical cyclone is expected to slowly turn towards the southeast and may reach category 3 intensity if conditions remain favourable. Ex Tropical Cyclone Owen moved towards the Queensland coast and crossed on 10 December near Townsville. A storm surge and large waves were reported along the North Queensland coast. Inundation across the coast was not reported as the cyclone crossed during the lower neap tides.

 

3 December 2018. 

Tropical cyclone Owen formed in the Coral Sea as a category 1 tropical cyclone and named Owen. TC Owen developed into a category 2 cyclone before vertical wind shear weakened the system as it continued west towards the Queensland coast, effectively decaying back to a tropical low. 

 

TC Owen is the first tropical cyclone to develop this season (2018-19) and the first cyclone in December in waters of Queensland since 1997.

 

Satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Owen over Gulf of Carpentaria (13/12/2018), Image from JTWC
Satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Owen over Gulf of Carpentaria (13/12/2018), Image from JTWC
Satellite image showing Tropical Cyclone Owen over the Gulf of Carpetaria (0730 12 December 2018) from www.bom.gov.au
Satellite image showing Tropical Cyclone Owen over the Gulf of Carpetaria (0730 12 December 2018) from www.bom.gov.au
Satellite image showing Tropical Cyclone Owen over the Gulf of Carpentaria (13 December 2018) from JMA
Satellite image showing Tropical Cyclone Owen over the Gulf of Carpentaria ( 13 December 2018) from JMA

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen at 5:30 pm ACST 

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has weakened slightly over the last 6 hours, but

due to the slow movement of the system there is good confidence in the location

from satellite imagery. Recent motion [over last 3 hours] has been slowly

northeast.

Due to the weakening of the system over the last 6 hours dvorak analysis is

problematic. An unclear DT of around 3.5-4. Using the VIS the diurnal trend

shows a slight development [D-], giving a MET 4, but PAT was adjusted to 4.5. FT

4.5 [biased to PAT]. NESDIS ADT at 0430 UTC was 4.9 [Raw 3.8] and CIMSS ADT at

0510 UTC was 4.8 [Raw 3.5]. SATCON around 80 knots [1 min]. Maximum 10 minute

mean winds for Severe TC Owen estimated to be 75 knots.

CIMSS shear was around 10-15 knots from the north northeast at 00UTC.

There is strong consensus across all models that Owen will continue to move east

during the remainder of Thursday and Friday due to an amplifying middle level

trough and cut off low sweeping across SE Australia. The majority of the models

take Owen over the SE Gulf of Carpentaria, with landfall most likely later on

Friday or early Saturday between Gilbert River Mouth to Pormpuraaw. 

Owen has weakened after brushing the southwest coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria.

However, the system is likely to intensify over the next 24 hours as it moves

eastwards over water. The environment over the Gulf of Carpentaria is favourable

for development with SSTs 30-31C and low to moderate wind shear. Deep moisture

surrounds the system. Good poleward upper outflow is visible from satellite

imagery.  

In the longer term, Owen is expected to track close to or move off the eastern

Queensland coast during the weekend or early next week. Both EC and GFS 

indicate a strong system with gales over eastern quadrants. Embedded deep within

the mid-lat westerlies, ETT may be a possibility. However GFS cyclone phase

prognostic suggests it retains its warm core. Either way, gales and significant 

rainfall are possible along the central Qld coast this weekend or early next

week.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Owen at 6:30 pm ACST [7:00 pm AEST]:

Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 45 kilometres of 14.9 degrees South 136.8 degrees East, estimated to be 100 kilometres south southeast of Groote Eylandt and 140 kilometres north northeast of Borroloola.

Movement: west at 9 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Owen is located over the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria and is moving slowly towards the west. Owen will become slow moving overnight before tracking towards the east, back towards the Queensland coast during Thursday. If Owen tracks more towards the south or west overnight Wednesday into early Thurday, it may be located near the coast between Port Roper and Port McArthur before commencing its eastward track during Thursday. Owen may reach category 3 intensity by Thursday morning if conditions remain favourable. A coastal crossing along the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Karumba to Pormpuraaw later Friday is likely.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts up to 110 kilometres per hour may develop between Alyangula and the NT/Qld Border, including Groote Eylandt during the remainder Wednesday. On Thursday, GALES may extend to Burketown, including Mornington Island, and then extend further to the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria between Burketown and Cape Keerweer and adjacent inland areas on Friday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop along the coast near Port Roper and to the NT/Qld Border late on Wednesday and early Thursday. On Friday DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop between Pormpuraaw and Karumba as the system approaches the Queensland coast.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 170 km/h may develop along the coast near Port Roper and the NT/Qld border from Thursday morning if TC Owen strengthens to category 3 near the coast. If Owen maintains category 3 intensity during Friday VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible between Kowanyama and Gilbert River Mouth later on Friday.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely to develop about the islands and coastal areas of the western and southern Gulf of Carpentaria on Wednesday and Thursday.

As the cyclone approaches the coast a STORM TIDE between Port McArthur and Karumba may develop as the cyclone approaches the coast. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and MINOR FLOODING between Port McArthur and Karumba. Tides will be higher than normal and large waves may produce minor flooding between Port McArthur and Alyangula.

 

Details of Tropical Cyclone Owen 4:00 am AEST 12122018

Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 14.8 degrees South 137.9 degrees East, estimated to be 170 kilometres east southeast of Groote Eylandt and 220 kilometres northeast of Borroloola.

Movement: west northwest at 12 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Owen is located northwest of Mornington Island. It is expected to continue moving westwards during Wednesday and then change course to move eastwards and back towards the Queensland coast on Thursday. It may reach category 3 intensity by Thursday if conditions remain favourable. A coastal crossing along the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast during Friday is most likely.

 

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Owen at 4:00 pm AEST 11122018:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour. 

Location: within 30 kilometres of 15.1 degrees South, 139.2 degrees East , 175 kilometres north of Mornington Island and 330 kilometres east northeast of Borroloola . 

Movement: west northwest at 15 kilometres per hour .

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Owen is located north of Mornington Island. It is expected to continue moving steadily westwards during the rest of today and is likely to redevelop into a tropical cyclone tonight over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria. During Wednesday or Thursday, the tropical cyclone is expected to slow down and turn back towards the Queensland coast and may reach category 3 intensity if conditions remain favourable. A coastal crossing along the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast during Friday is most likely.

 

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Owen details 10/12/2018

at 3:30 pm ACST [4:00 pm AEST]:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 45 kilometres of 16.0 degrees South 143.0 degrees East, estimated to be 145 kilometres east southeast of Kowanyama and 720 kilometres east of Borroloola.

Movement: west at 13 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Owen is moving westwards across the Cape York Peninsula and is expected to enter the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria in the early hours of Tuesday morning. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Owen is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria. During Wednesday or Thursday, the tropical cyclone is expected to slowly turn towards the southeast and may reach category 3 intensity if conditions remain favourable.

 

Technical details 03122018

IDQ20065

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Queensland Region

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN

For 4:45 am EST on Monday 3 December 2018

At 4 am AEST Monday, Tropical Cyclone Owen, category 1, with central pressure

995 hPa was located over the northern Coral Sea near latitude 15.2 south

longitude 154.9 east, which is about 540 km east northeast of Willis Island and

1000 km east of Cairns.

Tropical cyclone Owen has continued moving south-southeast during the past few

hours. Owen is expected to intensify further and is likely to reach Category 2

later today.

Tropical cyclone Owen is expected to slow and turn westward later today or

tonight. It should begin to weaken during Tuesday. The cyclone should be

relatively slow moving, and poses no immediate threat to the Queensland coast.

It should remain well off the coast until it weakens later in the week. 

From www.bom.gov.au

Colourised satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Owen (02/12/2018). images from NOAA.
Colourised satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Owen (02/12/2018). images from NOAA.
Satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Owen in the south west Pacific Ocean, 02/11/2018. Image from JTWC
Satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Owen in the south west Pacific Ocean, 02/11/2018. Image from JTWC
Satellite image showing Tropical Cyclone Owen in the Coral Sea to the north east of Queensland  (02/12/2018) Image from JMA
Satellite image showing Tropical Cyclone Owen in the Coral Sea to the north east of Queensland (02/12/2018) Image from JMA